It’s no secret the housing market has been hammered. Prices are down and inventory are up – the worst its been in decades. Add to it the lending standard and apprehension banks have in giving anyone a loan, sales have come to a grinding halt. Foreclosures and bank owned properties dot neighborhoods all over the USA, and few areas have been unaffected.
But what about commercial real estate. Apartment buildings in particular? Depends on the area, but most areas are starting to feel the pinch. Check out this articlefrom Bloomberg.
Basically, the worst is yet to come – at least for banks. A rash of unprepared buyers, lofty proformas, and lax underwriting led to many building being over leveraged. These over-leveraged buildings now present a huge issue for banks, for as the asset value comes down, owners walk away. Defaults to the tune of 5.5% of all mortgages are anticipated in 2010.
So what does this mean for investors?
Well, if you own buildings you are probably already feeling the pressure. Increased vacancy and decreased collections are apparent due to job loss, while increased energy costs can pinch cash flow. Many loans are expecting to go variable or hit their balloon payment terms within the next couple years and those owners will be unable to sell their property or refinance their loans. Banks will be staring at an inordinate amount of REOs. They will have to change their standards just like they are doing with home loans.
If you are a buyer, this in an incredible opportunity. There will be many properties stuck at the banks looking for owners. Whether it is discounted price, killer terms, or extra leverage opportunities, it will be time to capitalize.
I am in the unique situation that I will be in both camps. I intend on negotiating with any of our current buildings to take advantage of any leniency the banks offer while attempting to pick up additional assets in the downturn. No doubt, it will be a interesting time to be an apartment investor!